Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe08ab6caa12a45970e0df10930524ad22ae1783b59f2825e1eb760a4a71f7e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof Michigan Wolverines, Duke Blue Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 11,973$6,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,926.39 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 10,600$5,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,512.07 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 10,288$5,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,112.99 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…9e70backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 4,088$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 3,566$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.54 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf40…87debacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.82 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 1,111$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.6 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 998.78$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.38 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -6.1wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 991.28$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 991.26$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.46 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 795.63$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.86 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 762.51$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.01 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 658.21$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.85 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 606.89$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.51 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 605.91$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.84 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 592.71$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.28 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 563.23$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.27 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 539.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 505.27$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.58 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 495.63$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.77 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 485.91$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.81 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 443.26$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.41 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…cf9cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 413.03$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed55…d480backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 396.5$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 377.66$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 291.64$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 277.17$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.13 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 252.87$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 223.03$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x350b…41e8backed Duke Blue Devils | 77c | 211.09$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 199.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd977…017dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 188.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 182.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Michigan Wolverines | 23c | 148.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 120.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e8…a7bdbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 100.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…e183backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 99.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…7bb6backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 81.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 74.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 71.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 66.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 60.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eba…3b04backed Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 60.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fe…c2c2backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 57.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 57.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 47.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…a26dbacked Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 45.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3948…f81bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 33c | 45.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd32b…735cbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 45.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 38.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 38.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Duke Blue Devils | 62c | 27.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…9442backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 24.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Michigan Wolverines | 43c | 23.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 19.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 19.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-2.5)this page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan WolverinesDuke Blue Devils won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 150.5Under won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 151.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.