La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30170d5e72d6b337b965c258ace77cc4c65519f0b67f4774c30e0ea941dc0642
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valencia CFof Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, Valencia CF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64af…71c9backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 2,008$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8d…1074backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,924$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…aa66backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,789$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…71aabacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,442$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42f…3028backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,424$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b8…afb4backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,405$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6185…8da5backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,373$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5394…3041backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,372$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…d03dbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,372$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3c…fb81backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,369$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8856…5ff9backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,333$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…f798backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 1,323$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…e5a6backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,311$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda9…2dcabacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,309$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…1d5fbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,288$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ec…f0dabacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,253$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bf…9ef5backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,223$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…2e03backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,195$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…0730backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,171$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…280bbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 1,158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd02…107cbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,050$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa174…8736backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 1,047$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…e6f2backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 1,034$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…a297backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 1,032$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…4600backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 1,030$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…85fdbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 1,020$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…5cf6backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 1,006$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…8d1abacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 3c | 1,002$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…b8debacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 987.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…f93bbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 880$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…74dfbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 844$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…fdc1backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 838$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…ce3abacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 826$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71b…166cbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 806.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…4e23backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 5c | 705.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 2c | 631.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 239.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5Over won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.