La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x540a9e9016cdfa9a50b1d58685e7843a84a3420174cce1eddeb909e7fd9b45da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rayo Vallecano de Madridof Valencia CF, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6377…a709backed Valencia CF | 19c | 8,418$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Valencia CF | 19c | 2,145$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.57 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Valencia CF | 10c | 1,836$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.95 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Valencia CF | 20c | 1,351$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.22 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Valencia CF | 19c | 1,083$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.79 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Valencia CF | 11c | 980.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -72%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 80c | 546.88$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 354 | 42.7%151 W · 203 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 80c | 320$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…6576backed Valencia CF | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d242backed Valencia CF | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…dc65backed Valencia CF | 20c | 96.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Valencia CF | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 413 | 23.2%96 W · 317 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Valencia CF | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 80c | 46.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 684 | 50.6%346 W · 338 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5Over won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.