TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Eternal Fire
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,996

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,996 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e2f…ec47backed Eternal Fire28c15,218$4,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,261.0925842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Eternal Fire28c6,363$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.5411633.6%39 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed BetBoom Team72c5,701$4,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.9513850%69 W · 69 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked BetBoom Team72c5,700$4,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.3710138.6%39 W · 62 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Eternal Fire29c5,289$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.936240.3%146 W · 216 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked BetBoom Team72c4,751$3,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.3813142.7%56 W · 75 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Eternal Fire28c4,487$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.651,72346.8%807 W · 916 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Eternal Fire30c3,869$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.455,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked BetBoom Team73c3,600$2,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97214954.4%81 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed BetBoom Team71c3,573$2,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.0731642.1%133 W · 183 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Eternal Fire11c3,088$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.61,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed BetBoom Team72c1,900$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53246749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20bb…5bb4backed BetBoom Team71c1,618$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.22742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d11…6096backed Eternal Fire29c1,603$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.751637.5%6 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.26per pick63cpaid-33.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xab8d…6fe9backed BetBoom Team71c1,439$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.313046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed BetBoom Team73c1,398$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.446654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked BetBoom Team69c1,375$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.2784454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed BetBoom Team71c1,176$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.9222541.8%94 W · 131 L-14.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed BetBoom Team71c1,172$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9617847.2%84 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc667…e68dbacked Eternal Fire9c1,155$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.133231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x925d…ca00backed BetBoom Team72c1,125$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3151866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Eternal Fire30c1,111$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.335,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3111backed Eternal Fire29c1,107$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.03825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed BetBoom Team72c1,091$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.5239245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x190a…03a0backed Eternal Fire30c1,082$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1481…5bfebacked Eternal Fire9c1,054$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed BetBoom Team72c1,040$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.091258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+44.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3735…3d9dbacked Eternal Fire29c1,033$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.473925.6%10 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed BetBoom Team72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28017758.2%103 W · 74 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Eternal Fire26c965.49$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2252936.3%192 W · 337 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Eternal Fire27c927.46$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9720238.6%78 W · 124 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2603…90b3backed Eternal Fire29c888$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.524131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid+58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819c…15b6backed BetBoom Team70c887$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.11181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick56cpaid+65.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Eternal Fire28c877.26$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.934,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd437…738fbacked Eternal Fire30c844$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d1f…a252backed Eternal Fire24c836.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015033.3%50 W · 100 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7f…70cdbacked Eternal Fire13c786.41$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1063225%8 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed BetBoom Team72c725.7$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.760143.1%259 W · 342 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked BetBoom Team71c709.98$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.938358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad41…b1c0backed BetBoom Team70c664$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.21553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf16…9c6fbacked Eternal Fire9c639.37$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.32748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a0…79ddbacked BetBoom Team73c614.08$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.84062.5%25 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed BetBoom Team70c569.99$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17133237%123 W · 209 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed BetBoom Team72c569.44$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.441553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1085…e12dbacked BetBoom Team71c563.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.384042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked BetBoom Team70c545.4$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.4811646.6%54 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed BetBoom Team72c531.94$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.9456938.1%217 W · 352 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Eternal Fire10c499.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9943640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed BetBoom Team72c456$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.6839239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Eternal Fire29c421.03$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4654032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Eternal Fire14c418.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.462,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed BetBoom Team73c410.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9611940.3%48 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked BetBoom Team71c407.19$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4829044.8%130 W · 160 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x835b…6f16backed BetBoom Team71c405$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.453748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+22.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed BetBoom Team80c405$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.454,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Eternal Fire15c403$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8421536.3%78 W · 137 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa85b…6d93backed BetBoom Team71c402.15$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.621850%9 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Eternal Fire29c374.28$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3572453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed Eternal Fire28c364.86$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.161,08737.5%408 W · 679 L+33.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed BetBoom Team71c350$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.52450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed Eternal Fire29c348.17$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1314839.9%59 W · 89 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed BetBoom Team72c338.89$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8936742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff0b…d06bbacked Eternal Fire29c338$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.021338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Eternal Fire10c333.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3250340.2%202 W · 301 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Eternal Fire30c326$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7518041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed BetBoom Team71c322.85$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6346343.2%200 W · 263 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8018…125dbacked Eternal Fire29c318$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.221353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed BetBoom Team76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7251252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc311…c154backed Eternal Fire13c299.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015752.2%82 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked Eternal Fire30c293.33$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888852.3%46 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2270…2d8cbacked Eternal Fire29c292$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.68728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba0e…995cbacked Eternal Fire29c280$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc995…2224backed BetBoom Team71c276.06$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.068644.2%38 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2073…3af0backed Eternal Fire29c261$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.691136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed Eternal Fire31c254$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.744959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df4…8ca6backed Eternal Fire29c250$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95cf…fd9dbacked BetBoom Team71c245$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.051145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe489…8fd8backed BetBoom Team71c240$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.61464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31a8…7cb1backed BetBoom Team72c222.22$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.222842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed Eternal Fire29c216.32$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4724429.5%72 W · 172 L-0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Eternal Fire28c210.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5745639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf40…695dbacked BetBoom Team71c206$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.741656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed Eternal Fire30c196.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604436.4%16 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabab…8b3ebacked BetBoom Team70c195$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x824d…4a68backed Eternal Fire29c188$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.521464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+57.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x466e…5482backed BetBoom Team71c182$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.781060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfa4…4a42backed BetBoom Team70c180$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x388b…629fbacked Eternal Fire28c177.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.751741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Eternal Fire10c177.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.353,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Eternal Fire30c166$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.81,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc011…bf70backed Eternal Fire31c165.13$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.196338.1%24 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Eternal Fire28c145$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.92227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-57.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x817c…fb78backed BetBoom Team76c143.03$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.181258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked BetBoom Team70c141.43$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4354743.7%239 W · 308 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked BetBoom Team71c141$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8918063.9%115 W · 65 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3c…a832backed BetBoom Team71c137$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.731968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+39.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbc97…2811backed BetBoom Team71c133.55$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.734450%22 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Eternal Fire29c130.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8740247.8%192 W · 210 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb73…155fbacked Eternal Fire31c129.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…6ce1backed Eternal Fire9c129$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.611827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.