Tennis · resolved market
Lugano: Alex Rybakov vs Maxim Mrva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3072d3457e99832cb1594a370b864be02155bc3549cc56141a28b3858f43c4c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mrvaof Rybakov, Mrva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Rybakov | 18c | 6,562$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.81 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mrva | 62c | 4,764$2,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.7 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mrva | 78c | 4,260$3,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.85 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Rybakov | 15c | 1,523$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.88 | 757 | 48.6%368 W · 389 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rybakov | 41c | 1,265$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.53 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mrva | 70c | 792.03$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.39 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rybakov | 40c | 693.81$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.94 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Rybakov | 43c | 411.96$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.25 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mrva | 53c | 325.48$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.86 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Mrva | 70c | 312$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Rybakov | 46c | 263.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363b…fb76backed Rybakov | 44c | 262.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rybakov | 39c | 210.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Rybakov | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Rybakov | 46c | 176.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed Rybakov | 22c | 156.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Mrva | 54c | 127$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Rybakov | 35c | 120.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Mrva | 56c | 119.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 151 | 17.9%27 W · 124 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mrva | 57c | 106.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Rybakov | 48c | 105.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Mrva | 55c | 90.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Rybakov | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Mrva | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…7a8ebacked Rybakov | 53c | 55.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mrva | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Mrva | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…a482backed Mrva | 78c | 53.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Mrva | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb172…ffa1backed Mrva | 20c | 50.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 148 | 28.4%42 W · 106 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Mrva | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rybakov | 41c | 46.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…453dbacked Rybakov | 47c | 42.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c0fbacked Mrva | 53c | 39.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Mrva | 56c | 39.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Mrva | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…e5fbbacked Mrva | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Mrva | 57c | 34.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Mrva | 66c | 26.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…8d44backed Rybakov | 53c | 23.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…e931backed Mrva | 63c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.