MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x307f38bce34be75c2612e453ada57311615dc9e490b63f4d6c6d54bf3ef7dd77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 4,922$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.3 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 3,235$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 1,823$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.14 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 1,582$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.27 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 1,087$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.66 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 195$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 128.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 32c | 128.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 115.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 107$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 39.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…28cdbacked San Diego Padres | 80c | 32.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 30.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…60b6backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 29.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf354…5645backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 28.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 26.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5206backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 25.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be6…221cbacked San Diego Padres | 80c | 24.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…cbc8backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 23.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked San Diego Padres | 69c | 22.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…d900backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 22.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18af…af4dbacked San Diego Padres | 80c | 22.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…0694backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 22.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…8a41backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 21.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…ac4abacked San Diego Padres | 80c | 21.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 18.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.