MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb856a7cf02ce9796be5096fa2a5d1adb4462a3067dbaf1c1470e39f1954da512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 10,535$5,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,171.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 9,780$4,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,849.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…bf14backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 40c | 933.96$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.17 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…0a4fbacked Over | 49c | 869$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 53c | 661$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.33 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 636.79$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 47c | 515.57$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.25 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 55c | 451.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.64 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 399$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Under | 62c | 353.65$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 64c | 329.75$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.04 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 48c | 299.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.98 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 57c | 267$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 232.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 52c | 216.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 196$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 51c | 195$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 155.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 151.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 11c | 130.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 51c | 98.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Over | 47c | 94.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…bdd5backed Under | 55c | 94.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 46c | 53.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 49.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 42.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b48…1d20backed Under | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…de14backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 26.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd3…1e24backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 56c | 23.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 55c | 21.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.