MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87a99178bfea61916539935ffd8d3ae5ad4c246d60013cf3178408f847766b36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 6,600$3,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,466.47 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 2,660$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 2,626$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.37 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 2,261$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 45c | 1,177$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.74 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 835.34$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 797.47$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Under | 55c | 318.4$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.12 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 57c | 193.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 62c | 187$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 52c | 186.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 55c | 182.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 37c | 159$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 44c | 118.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 117.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 53c | 113.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 88.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 61c | 83.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 40c | 67.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 43c | 46.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 55c | 35.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 53c | 33.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 57c | 28.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 59c | 22.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.