Ukraine · resolved market
Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x308f90fa510f7ef7319e8d9948511abdae4d47032ef1421138f20b2ec5e73f03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $357,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 4c | 39,838$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 12c | 39,691$4,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,766.31 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 11c | 23,143$2,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.13 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 6c | 19,058$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.71 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 5c | 15,686$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.03 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…07d4backed Yes | 3c | 9,410$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 6,067$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 15c | 5,985$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 14c | 5,127$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x181d…bf7abacked Yes | 23c | 4,355$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf935…5f15backed Yes | 22c | 4,329$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ec…b07fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,170$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 6c | 2,538$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 13c | 1,949$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,433$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 71c | 1,160$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…4282backed Yes | 24c | 1,125$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 23c | 1,004$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…f472backed Yes | 1c | 935.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…9d47backed Yes | 32c | 762.14$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 5c | 543.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 29cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 18c | 445.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b8…a9ecbacked No | 77c | 427.63$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19de…713ebacked No | 74c | 392.04$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…3e3cbacked No | 65c | 383.4$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 23c | 326.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1973…0ef3backed Yes | 3c | 314.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…f1d8backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc76d…121ebacked No | 79c | 300$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 29c | 275$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…5ef3backed No | 78c | 254.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e0…46fcbacked Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 12c | 220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…9c89backed No | 78c | 153.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd171…0debbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9377…aed8backed Yes | 23c | 118.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf460…7cfbbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…70a6backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05d…a50ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…d6dbbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4b…ac55backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…b14dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ab…ca37backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ced…c076backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817c…81f9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…c259backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35d…108fbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438b…bddbbacked No | 75c | 31.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4f…b0ffbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3777…6c4bbacked No | 77c | 13.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.