NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flames (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3098f8fb63e7feca11b1e5a16c783321a08e91eaede9d1d7be16e66a2d21512f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Flames, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Flames | 25c | 573.75$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Red Wings | 75c | 315.5$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x124c…0940backed Flames | 30c | 131$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…f757backed Red Wings | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Flames | 30c | 104.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3126…9dabbacked Red Wings | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Flames | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Red Wings | 75c | 81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Red Wings | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Red Wings | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Red Wings | 75c | 36.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. FlamesRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.