NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x422c7d7a00273d05d2e8feca8d996a25a43c514e72332f8cf142e251c4b95402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Red Wings, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Red Wings | 4c | 2,089$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Red Wings | 47c | 1,858$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.33 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Flames | 67c | 1,275$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.79 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Flames | 72c | 912.13$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.13 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Red Wings | 6c | 800.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Flames | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Flames | 75c | 750.18$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +689.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Red Wings | 28c | 599.54$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.84 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Flames | 52c | 547$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.33 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Red Wings | 35c | 457$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 31c | 311$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Flames | 52c | 307.55$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.88 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flames | 69c | 305$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Red Wings | 32c | 223$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Red Wings | 26c | 167.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Red Wings | 40c | 161.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Red Wings | 30c | 140.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Red Wings | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Red Wings | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flames | 69c | 74.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Red Wings | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Flames | 70c | 72.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Flames | 70c | 22.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Flames | 70c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. FlamesRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.