NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Hornets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30afc406abb7cd696b3108bd367814c4f7518062297edb523f7854420db7ccc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Heat | 67c | 37,776$25,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,406.52 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…9b3ebacked Hornets | 33c | 35,000$11,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,550 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Heat | 74c | 6,132$4,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.26 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Hornets | 6c | 3,900$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Heat | 76c | 2,515$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.64 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Hornets | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.95 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Hornets | 32c | 1,550$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.94 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Heat | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hornets | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Hornets | 25c | 936.94$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…79ebbacked Hornets | 25c | 750$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Hornets | 25c | 700$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Hornets | 21c | 628.57$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Hornets | 27c | 534.15$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 208 | 51.4%107 W · 101 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Heat | 70c | 443.99$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Hornets | 32c | 399.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…2032backed Hornets | 25c | 394.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Hornets | 17c | 381.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Hornets | 9c | 316.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Hornets | 14c | 305$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Heat | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Hornets | 27c | 280$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…16c1backed Hornets | 11c | 264.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Heat | 68c | 230$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat | 66c | 202.05$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked Heat | 64c | 201.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…c8e7backed Hornets | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Hornets | 34c | 199.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…e861backed Heat | 72c | 197.24$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Heat | 70c | 192.66$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…102bbacked Heat | 80c | 185.88$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc845…9d87backed Heat | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed Hornets | 27c | 141.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…6a86backed Heat | 78c | 137.94$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba2…f2aabacked Heat | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…9311backed Hornets | 43c | 112.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…d903backed Hornets | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Heat | 58c | 101.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161d…6492backed Heat | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Hornets | 34c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 930 | 41.9%390 W · 540 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Hornets | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Hornets | 27c | 85.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…f8efbacked Heat | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Heat | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd123…4f07backed Hornets | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Heat | 64c | 62.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 139 | 69.1%96 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Hornets | 32c | 62.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fa…43adbacked Heat | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c56…dfa1backed Hornets | 18c | 58.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c5…4fa3backed Heat | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc136…0c3bbacked Hornets | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Heat | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Heat | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebd9…3de5backed Heat | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…af1abacked Hornets | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2190…36babacked Hornets | 33c | 30.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Heat | 73c | 24.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Heat | 67c | 21.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…684bbacked Heat | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee2…07c3backed Heat | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Heat | 80c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…8874backed Heat | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…c5abbacked Heat | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.