MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c6cdf97e1fd2935cd3df779e5490437779c5ed9bcd0067a122bf954e5204da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 57c | 3,967$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.78 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 3,307$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 1c | 1,860$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 1,231$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,189$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 56c | 1,052$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.71 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 53c | 946.02$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.39 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 808.65$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 567.58$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.83 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 50c | 526.55$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.28 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 41c | 311.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 47c | 251.91$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.53 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 71c | 246.51$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 59c | 216.7$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 22c | 172$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 48c | 155$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 60c | 152.68$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 127.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 21c | 123.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 121.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 115.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 48c | 114.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…6fc8backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 79c | 79.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 51c | 54.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 21c | 52.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 48.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 56c | 44.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 79c | 41.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 53c | 25.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.