MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ae269979cc243807984c4859f88d1a48327ec4d932729e6884331d1b9bfbef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 39,530$20,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,567.11 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 29,327$14,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,313.14 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 6,762$3,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,516.24 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.22 | 900 | 53.6%482 W · 418 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 55c | 1,975$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.03 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 56c | 1,687$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.72 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 54c | 1,242$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.4 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 1,043$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 1,012$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.65 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Under | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 865.43$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.34 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 603.77$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.11 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 44c | 340$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 70c | 235.63$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 57c | 178.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 49c | 146.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68b…c39cbacked Under | 56c | 115.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…f8c0backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Under | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 25c | 77.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 45c | 67.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 49c | 58.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 58.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Over | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…2191backed Under | 56c | 35.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 45c | 30.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 25.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 22.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…038dbacked Over | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.