Movies · resolved market
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? (February 10)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c876db08b975348385ce2573f6f526167c778e90f32e7c449b999b7160fc55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 1,285$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed No | 25c | 666$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 2c | 495.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 75c | 450$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked Yes | 66c | 376.59$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.59 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 254.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked Yes | 61c | 245.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 66c | 188.52$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 68.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…175bbacked Yes | 70c | 47.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 80c | 28.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…e036backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? (February 10)this page
- Will "Mike Epps: Delusional" be the top global Netflix show this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "Night Court" be the top global Netflix show this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "Star Search" be the top global Netflix show this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? (February 10)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.