Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30cf9dc49feb63edddefb32d1dc31235e5a162d212015134a672fa1554146b9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 270.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 15c | 261.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 49c | 224.53$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 67c | 214.48$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 33c | 199.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 181$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 15c | 174.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 163.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 153.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 63c | 152.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 146.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 26c | 129.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 29c | 128.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 124.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 119.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 28c | 98.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 95.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 31c | 92.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 41c | 89.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 38c | 80.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…d91dbacked No | 64c | 77.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd72a…0f67backed No | 65c | 72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 71.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 67.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 45c | 66.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 62.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 28c | 53.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 50c | 51.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 48.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 59c | 47.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 45.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a7…000cbacked Yes | 35c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 44c | 43.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…faa8backed No | 65c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 40.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 39.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ee…d06abacked Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 38c | 36.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 41c | 35.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 64c | 35.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 45c | 33.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2577…5418backed Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 45c | 28.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 66c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…1b0cbacked Yes | 52c | 27.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 64c | 25.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 66c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 63c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 44c | 22.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 58c | 22.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 19.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 61c | 16.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 69c | 16.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.