Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0e3de8a6ecba62cc5b065e84ba4007cfd3c405e0a82c1a8f11dbf9b3138239b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 40c | 523.06$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.2 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 67c | 282.28$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 270.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 267.28$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 31c | 192.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 30c | 190.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 52c | 183.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 176.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 68c | 146.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 60c | 144.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 48c | 135.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 55c | 128.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 125.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 60c | 120.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 116.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 55c | 106.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 28c | 105.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 32c | 99.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 95.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 92.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 76.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 72c | 71.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 57c | 70.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 69.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 52c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 74c | 67.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 61c | 61.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 56.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 48c | 56.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 35c | 55.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 47c | 54.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 52c | 51.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 55c | 50.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 49.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 58c | 46.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 46.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 55c | 45.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 28c | 42.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 68c | 42.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 38c | 36.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 33c | 36.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 32.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 44c | 31.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 64c | 29.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…06e2backed Yes | 37c | 29.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 28.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 80c | 27.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 71c | 26.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90d…ce28backed Yes | 77c | 25.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 72c | 23.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 18.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 64c | 18.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 70c | 18.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8b…58b9backed Yes | 61c | 16.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 15.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe365…c0d8backed No | 79c | 12.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.