Movies · resolved market
Will "Downton Abbey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30d7217504d724c67a073850aec39cd1fc2896110bcc390c08ba9964dab3b78d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 4c | 18,849$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.59 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 15c | 1,726$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.83 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 30c | 1,483$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.98 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 77c | 1,424$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.55 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 70c | 959.33$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 47c | 880.94$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.97 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…32e3backed No | 60c | 800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 80c | 750$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 707.65$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.57 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 77c | 628.82$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.16 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 25c | 560.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Yes | 18c | 556.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 41c | 511.6$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.82 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 69c | 479.59$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.67 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 52c | 474$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.52 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 14c | 200.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 167$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed No | 22c | 164$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 59c | 142.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 44c | 130$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 23c | 82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbb…fd16backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 24cpaid | +325.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 72c | 23.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Downton Abbey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m?this page
- Will "Downton Abbey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20m and $23m?No won
- Will "Downton Abbey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23m and $26m?No won
- Will "Downton Abbey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $26m and $29m?No won
- Will "Downton Abbey" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.