MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30e0a31151b8f1a881231f14c8938c51fe3e0fa99148e235ad914a10e66983ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 18,146$6,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,932.93 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 65c | 15,563$10,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,469.47 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 9c | 2,025$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.25 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 2,025$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.88 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.83 | 1,924 | 53.4%1,028 W · 896 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 22c | 1,005$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.15 | 2,148 | 51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L | +50.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 998.32$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.08 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 49c | 970.2$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.8 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 35c | 809.03$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.79 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 52c | 299$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 1,894 | 49.3%934 W · 960 L | +24.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 259.16$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.76 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 48c | 245$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 1,889 | 52.9%1,000 W · 889 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Under | 75c | 230.8$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 352 | 54.5%192 W · 160 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 140.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 131.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 105.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 52c | 72.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,848 | 50.3%930 W · 918 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 49c | 33.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 716 | 52.4%375 W · 341 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 410 | 48.5%199 W · 211 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 925 | 56.3%521 W · 404 L | +30.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.