MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96953680db5682b3f037f13cc3dcb16b5a36ea79407267b075e89881f00d7562
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x927c…6633backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 18,625$4,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,572.93 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 18,081$13,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,560.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 4,654$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 3,551$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 3,114$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.27 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 3,053$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.81 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 2,403$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.7 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 835.56$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…694fbacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 825$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 71c | 590.94$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.83 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 364$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.74 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 65c | 256$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.02 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 152.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 130.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 98.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 72.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 66.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 59.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 57.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 55.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 51.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 48.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 45.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 31.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 16.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.