MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaef1a675094c3b64fdafd7c80fabfd0259d7c70a7058e391b6668c8feabe99f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x408f…b2f4backed No | 56c | 35,408$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,408.34 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 44c | 21,147$9,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,299.56 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 45c | 3,550$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.84 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 43c | 2,500$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 41c | 2,469$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.55 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 44c | 2,092$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.32 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 45c | 940.2$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.09 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 42c | 900$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…3f29backed No | 54c | 881.94$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.69 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…667fbacked Yes | 3c | 774.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…9431backed No | 54c | 347$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 45c | 285.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 56c | 269.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 43c | 203$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 55c | 201.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…09f1backed Yes | 45c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 55c | 80.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…ee6abacked Yes | 45c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 44c | 36.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 263 | 15.6%41 W · 222 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubsthis page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.