Mls · resolved market
Will St. Louis City SC vs. Colorado Rapids SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3104952ea628ee070583582f48d0c4ccb3b2654d25286bc2ed63b6d4ca47ad39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 21c | 1,990$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.21 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 50c | 1,022$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.31 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 942.01$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.18 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 890.21$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.65 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked No | 39c | 864.25$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.14 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 846.92$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.26 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…1660backed Yes | 35c | 725$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 24c | 671$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 46c | 622.49$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.9 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 491.01$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.11 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Yes | 10c | 263$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed No | 77c | 179.66$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 23c | 178.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 61c | 176.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 51c | 167.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 24c | 165$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e3…3a5cbacked No | 35c | 155$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 12c | 127.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 126.56$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 12c | 83.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 16c | 83.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 18c | 80.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 76.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.30per pick | 36cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 64.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…2ba2backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 51.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 30c | 34.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf799…6055backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will St. Louis City SC vs. Colorado Rapids SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-07-25?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.