NFL · resolved market
Rams vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3109656a10e72f647bf33903f4fe408d224294e969fe6d7807611e8979420f2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1c9…96d9backed Under | 51c | 36,000$18,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,640.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 50c | 25,101$12,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,550.54 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 50c | 23,263$11,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,601.69 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 49c | 20,038$9,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,818.45 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 49c | 10,910$5,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,345.9 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 4,060$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.45 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 1,809$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.94 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 49c | 1,532$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.3 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 46c | 995.83$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.08 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 46c | 925.93$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.93 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Under | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 49c | 924.3$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.91 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 51c | 882.35$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 49c | 511.78$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.77 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 350$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Over | 51c | 241.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 51c | 151$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 47c | 149.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…c2eabacked Under | 53c | 112.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeeb…645fbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 50c | 54.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 47.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Under | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rams vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5this page
- Rams vs. RavensRams won
- Rams vs. Ravens: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Rams (-7.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.