Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3116f7cc181ec595dc0552ada2b855935a434c6ae2579c0313cdd94d8c6a9c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Yandexof MOUZ, Team Yandex
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed MOUZ | 42c | 7,179$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Yandex | 61c | 5,879$3,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308.7 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Yandex | 69c | 2,395$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.21 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe15…80b5backed Team Yandex | 63c | 2,000$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.92 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ | 38c | 1,943$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.99 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed MOUZ | 37c | 1,232$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.66 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Yandex | 59c | 809.47$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.67 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ | 33c | 644.34$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.94 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 31c | 622.3$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.03 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 38c | 539.74$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.3 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked MOUZ | 40c | 439$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.28 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…6d65backed Team Yandex | 65c | 406.28$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Team Yandex | 65c | 305.52$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed Team Yandex | 62c | 212.09$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Yandex | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed MOUZ | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed MOUZ | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed Team Yandex | 63c | 185.95$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked MOUZ | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…8dc3backed MOUZ | 41c | 146.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed MOUZ | 8c | 126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed MOUZ | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed MOUZ | 29c | 73.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…32bebacked MOUZ | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -11.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Team Yandex | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Yandex | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Yandex | 62c | 49.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked MOUZ | 37c | 41.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Team Yandex | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MOUZ | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed MOUZ | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Yandex | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed MOUZ | 45c | 23.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Team Yandex | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Yandex (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.