Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92c7057269a9fb4c7f79c4ec6d6456ff78c57c301c66bb6dfe288572b1d01430
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Yandexof MOUZ, Team Yandex
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ | 42c | 7,596$3,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,215.1 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Team Yandex | 56c | 2,334$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.86 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Team Yandex | 60c | 2,000$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.67 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked MOUZ | 43c | 1,299$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.44 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Yandex | 56c | 1,164$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.16 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed Team Yandex | 56c | 1,059$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex | 61c | 926.65$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.75 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Team Yandex | 55c | 905.45$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.45 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed MOUZ | 48c | 629.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Yandex | 58c | 485.34$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.34 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked MOUZ | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex | 60c | 247.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Yandex | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…6d65backed Team Yandex | 63c | 162.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Yandex | 58c | 123.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Team Yandex | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e32…6e95backed MOUZ | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Team Yandex | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2d…77b4backed Team Yandex | 55c | 78.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked MOUZ | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Team Yandex | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Team Yandex | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Team Yandex | 60c | 24.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…29febacked Team Yandex | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Yandex (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.