Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Popyrin vs. Draper
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x311d47b93e208aad1d4ed81da81f83d1a737899b8ed0401832763f68b028723f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Draper of Popyrin, Draper
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Popyrin | 34c | 15,287$5,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,157.29 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Draper | 55c | 3,600$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Popyrin | 23c | 3,336$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.08 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Draper | 77c | 3,093$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.02 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Popyrin | 14c | 2,931$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.37 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Popyrin | 25c | 2,663$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.83 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Draper | 78c | 2,516$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.44 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Draper | 70c | 2,431$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Popyrin | 18c | 2,077$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.77 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Draper | 57c | 1,752$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.64 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Popyrin | 17c | 1,700$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.95 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Popyrin | 31c | 1,638$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Popyrin | 17c | 1,500$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.82 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Draper | 80c | 1,345$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.12 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Popyrin | 67c | 929.35$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.4 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Draper | 60c | 833.53$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.53 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Draper | 45c | 716.07$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.57 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Draper | 63c | 650.71$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.76 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Popyrin | 17c | 612.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Popyrin | 12c | 445.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Draper | 59c | 333$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Draper | 77c | 320$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Popyrin | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…2248backed Popyrin | 27c | 267.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Popyrin | 16c | 262$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Draper | 61c | 225.59$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Draper | 77c | 193.63$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Popyrin | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Popyrin | 45c | 177$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Draper | 58c | 136.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Draper | 77c | 127.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Popyrin | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…8722backed Draper | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Popyrin | 23c | 83.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…3798backed Draper | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Draper | 60c | 55.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Draper | 78c | 51.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Popyrin | 43c | 41.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…4eebbacked Popyrin | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Draper | 76c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.