NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Celtics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3128a0ebc00b11ae5286cd76d3f276946c0f8983a43a8142f7d4ad8c343cd1af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Wizards, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $292,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $281,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 7c | 34,940$2,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297.39 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Wizards | 6c | 22,171$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.55 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Wizards | 0c | 18,700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 232 | 37.1%86 W · 146 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Wizards | 6c | 15,278$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.9 | 308 | 26.6%82 W · 226 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Wizards | 2c | 13,620$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.74 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ec…e8f1backed Wizards | 6c | 11,814$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.83 | 248 | 31.9%79 W · 169 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Wizards | 6c | 8,800$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…db97backed Wizards | 6c | 8,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Wizards | 6c | 7,583$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.55 | 283 | 41.7%118 W · 165 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…d994backed Wizards | 6c | 5,153$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.18 | 374 | 48.7%182 W · 192 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Wizards | 0c | 5,032$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 750 | 2%15 W · 735 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Wizards | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 335 | 0%0 W · 335 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Wizards | 0c | 4,525$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Wizards | 5c | 3,785$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.24 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Wizards | 7c | 3,489$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.26 | 618 | 51.6%319 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Wizards | 2c | 2,835$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 166 | 17.5%29 W · 137 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca34…8cb1backed Wizards | 10c | 2,099$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…bc55backed Wizards | 6c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 504 | 53.8%271 W · 233 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…cb95backed Wizards | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 260 | 49.2%128 W · 132 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Wizards | 5c | 1,632$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Wizards | 1c | 1,530$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 376 | 27.9%105 W · 271 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Wizards | 6c | 1,490$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33e…90d0backed Wizards | 6c | 1,407$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Wizards | 2c | 1,267$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 365 | 14.2%52 W · 313 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Wizards | 2c | 1,240$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Wizards | 2c | 1,072$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Wizards | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 4.9%7 W · 136 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…b61bbacked Wizards | 7c | 805.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Wizards | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 190 | 38.4%73 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…7df8backed Wizards | 9c | 488.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Wizards | 5c | 467.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdb…5ae8backed Wizards | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…a18bbacked Wizards | 8c | 296.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Wizards | 7c | 169.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c5…20debacked Wizards | 7c | 149.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.