Serie A · resolved market
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x314fd4a9fce11553af207791358f00d041b476266e490d2d8ba94d1ac4db2eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 31c | 3,768$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.53 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 3,746$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.21 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 35c | 2,705$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 65c | 1,406$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.14 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 32c | 750$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 67c | 356.12$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 69c | 354.74$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.97 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 47c | 339.62$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 117 | 72.6%85 W · 32 L | +28.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 56c | 305.82$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.87 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 26c | 305$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 52c | 269.32$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed No | 51c | 204.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 38c | 189.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…f3c9backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +220.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 70c | 96.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea5…cc71backed Yes | 61c | 88.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 58.8%80 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 63c | 79.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 70c | 66.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 74c | 57.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 55.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 71c | 50.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…d067backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…45d2backed Yes | 31c | 39.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…1e60backed Yes | 29c | 37.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 62c | 37.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked No | 71c | 35.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?this page
- Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.