Asian League · resolved market
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x315904639aa8d98d431a37234ea8399cd922a33ba72bf5776d7d18e2adba35a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 13c | 1,439$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.23 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 25c | 1,007$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.34 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 38c | 610.37$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.43 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 80c | 582.12$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.68 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 67c | 522.31$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.57 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 75c | 394.84$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 25c | 299.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Over | 26c | 276.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 25c | 156.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed Under | 75c | 156$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 75c | 149.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 74c | 130.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 75c | 102.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 75c | 101.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 74c | 100.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…7980backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…7851backed Under | 68c | 99.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 75c | 97.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 25c | 70.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4175…0f73backed Over | 31c | 54.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddc…6ebabacked Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 61c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 61c | 16.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 76c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 65c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 4.5this page
- Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5Under won
- Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Nassr Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Hilal Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-2.5)Al Hilal Saudi Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.