Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3170e2ffa3e7d6d90c9646ef4a960c7defd449315b7ebc7f39a2cfa50444ffd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 23c | 6,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…7248backed Yes | 13c | 3,333$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 1,726$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.85 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 77c | 965.09$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.97 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 6c | 913$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 77c | 900$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 77c | 765.65$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.1 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…f72abacked No | 76c | 750$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 328.49$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 270.92$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 77c | 243$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 77c | 215$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 77c | 215$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 78c | 181.12$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Yes | 23c | 163.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 77c | 162$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 16c | 137.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes | 23c | 134.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 77c | 133.32$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 121.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 15c | 113.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a5…6f1fbacked No | 77c | 110.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 22c | 106$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 24c | 98.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked No | 76c | 93.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…3102backed Yes | 23c | 80.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 77c | 43.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 78cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 78c | 37.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed No | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-08-20?Yes won
- Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-08-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.