Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3183bcdfdda864e9391233c092ab840f69188b332403b30392cc0bc4f434b2e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arsenal FCof Sporting CP, Arsenal FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Sporting CP | 7c | 20,553$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.1 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Sporting CP | 4c | 5,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sporting CP | 2c | 3,217$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Sporting CP | 2c | 2,807$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab3…f61fbacked Sporting CP | 5c | 2,441$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Sporting CP | 6c | 1,655$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…7e50backed Sporting CP | 6c | 1,573$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sporting CP | 3c | 1,312$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Sporting CP | 2c | 1,173$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 397 | 43.3%172 W · 225 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd8…14cfbacked Sporting CP | 5c | 1,094$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…18e3backed Sporting CP | 5c | 1,039$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…e51fbacked Sporting CP | 4c | 1,031$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…6b67backed Sporting CP | 5c | 1,031$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Sporting CP | 4c | 1,004$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…a524backed Sporting CP | 4c | 968$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…1c02backed Sporting CP | 5c | 950$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…21debacked Sporting CP | 5c | 941$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8216…dfeabacked Sporting CP | 5c | 925.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…cb72backed Sporting CP | 6c | 898.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…2ca9backed Sporting CP | 4c | 888$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Sporting CP | 4c | 858.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2f…a7c0backed Sporting CP | 5c | 785$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…2ecdbacked Sporting CP | 5c | 770$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…9268backed Sporting CP | 5c | 763$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…182ebacked Sporting CP | 5c | 750$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c87…290bbacked Sporting CP | 4c | 747$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80a…cdccbacked Sporting CP | 5c | 735.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…2d6bbacked Sporting CP | 5c | 716$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1472…9863backed Sporting CP | 5c | 711.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…2defbacked Sporting CP | 4c | 657$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Sporting CP | 5c | 599.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Sporting CP | 4c | 548.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Sporting CP | 5c | 471.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 183 | 34.4%63 W · 120 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed Sporting CP | 5c | 391.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 9cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sporting CP | 3c | 359.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…12c1backed Sporting CP | 5c | 301.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…610abacked Sporting CP | 5c | 222$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Sporting CP won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Sporting CP won
- Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.