La Liga · resolved market
Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31f164c67327ac4948bd26f95bbf706d50a0e1923f472693a23062212f456990
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 4,022$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,466.4 | 4,846 | 47%2,279 W · 2,567 L | -17.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 2,175$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.04 | 3,546 | 42.7%1,514 W · 2,032 L | +28.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 11c | 990.47$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.85 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Under | 70c | 772.66$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.07 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 12c | 682.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.06 | 1,669 | 43.8%731 W · 938 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 12c | 389.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.55 | 104 | 18.3%19 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 78c | 346.35$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.61 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 26c | 293.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.18 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…eff1backed Under | 73c | 269.88$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 76cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Over | 9c | 210.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 24c | 203.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…72debacked Over | 51c | 190.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Over | 15c | 170.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 74c | 150.92$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 11c | 129.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.88 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Over | 19c | 121.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.19 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +43%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 18c | 104.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 14c | 101.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 19c | 100.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 18c | 92.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…1ebabacked Under | 75c | 89.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 35c | 66.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 17c | 65.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 96 | 11.5%11 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 20c | 49.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Under | 74c | 47.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 70cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 72c | 41.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.4wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -61%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d93abacked Over | 70c | 27.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…e8fbbacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.