TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,807

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,683 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox31c4,377$1,376 inLost-$1,375.612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked San Francisco Giants71c4,000$2,840 inWon+$1,159.8860350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants42c476.18$200 inWon+$276.192,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox25c393$98 inLost-$97.63,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed San Francisco Giants75c379$285 inWon+$93.681,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3a…ccbebacked Chicago White Sox29c253.27$74 inLost-$73.822420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed San Francisco Giants29c250$73 inWon+$177.51,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox71c192.47$136 inLost-$135.899,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed San Francisco Giants35c151.66$53 inWon+$98.5857548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked San Francisco Giants22c110$24 inWon+$85.899624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Chicago White Sox30c91.87$28 inLost-$27.561,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox53c86.67$46 inLost-$46.2710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Chicago White Sox58c85.45$50 inLost-$49.5633934.5%117 W · 222 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox26c68.6$18 inLost-$17.848,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants75c56$42 inWon+$14.15,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants54c50.57$27 inWon+$23.142,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago White Sox75c50$38 inLost-$37.52,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Chicago White Sox37c37.84$14 inLost-$13.9212746.5%59 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked San Francisco Giants57c35.09$20 inWon+$15.091,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox78c31.89$25 inLost-$24.885,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants63c23$14 inWon+$8.512,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago White Sox76c22.46$17 inLost-$16.972,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.