MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x199701d04a71dc0dce55a8d30c8454bd9a407b7e33f7fedbd5ca68e5d6a4af1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 5,306$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,329.71 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 3,878$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 1,488$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.3 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 1,306$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.72 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 26c | 1,298$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.62 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 65c | 1,271$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…e8d1backed San Francisco Giants | 20c | 828.62$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed San Francisco Giants | 28c | 730.82$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.63 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 700$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed San Francisco Giants | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 513.56$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked San Francisco Giants | 17c | 454.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 384.14$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 368.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.7 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 17c | 319.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 318.3$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed San Francisco Giants | 28c | 273.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Chicago White Sox | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 243.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Chicago White Sox | 79c | 223.62$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 178.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.38 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago White Sox | 31c | 166$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 154.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 117.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 111.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 89.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Chicago White Sox | 25c | 84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago White Sox | 45c | 58.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Chicago White Sox | 31c | 45.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 43.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed San Francisco Giants | 73c | 30.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 22.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Chicago White Sox | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.