MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9f16ab8d927b5f2f8118921b38a80271fc857352f1900abf677dd0441a9d66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 46c | 16,274$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,774.22 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 6,620$3,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,562.4 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 4,756$2,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,615.9 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 4,329$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.11 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 1,000$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 75c | 969.38$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.15 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 54c | 947.68$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.75 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 801.67$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.92 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 35c | 530.19$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.47 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 399.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 72c | 359.07$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 329.06$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fa…3262backed Under | 55c | 323.98$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.19 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 54c | 252.74$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 67c | 210.42$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…ad2bbacked Under | 53c | 205.85$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 54c | 201.02$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.55 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 27c | 184$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 47c | 157.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 149$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 33c | 140.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 48c | 111.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 57c | 72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 45c | 71.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 63.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 53c | 58.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 48.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 46.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 54c | 40.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 41c | 30.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…9c48backed Under | 54c | 27.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 24.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 45c | 22.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.