MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x362c7dec49acbc2992f39a4689e609e26a4e9b7486482fc3bf52b762d4e63671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 13,192$8,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,677.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 7,662$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,531.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 3,997$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 69c | 3,600$2,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,472.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 57c | 2,597$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.93 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 2,147$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 29c | 1,082$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.91 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 56c | 829.41$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.47 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 750.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 67c | 747.07$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.01 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 738$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.7 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 33c | 735.49$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.71 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 26c | 684.56$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 35c | 318.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…ccbebacked Over | 27c | 307.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.58 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 69c | 206.21$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.28 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 28c | 191.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.39 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 30c | 191.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 70c | 190.8$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 33c | 187.32$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 27c | 184.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.75 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 56c | 175.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 27c | 168$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.64 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 70c | 101$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 67c | 97.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 66c | 90.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 62.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…ba67backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 56c | 49.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 27c | 43.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Over | 34c | 43.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 51c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 77c | 34.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 49c | 32.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.