MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4f59e73046fcf8190030590269805bcc2688b35b0f1b4209aeeec1c193d6f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 31c | 5,581$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 51c | 4,587$2,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 2,196$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.99 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 1,699$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.23 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 1,096$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.74 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 1,016$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.82 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 981$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.74 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 51c | 893.13$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 43c | 640.38$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed San Francisco Giants | 47c | 421.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.47 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 395$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.15 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 301.72$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.98 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 271.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.83 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 206.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 174.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 170.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed San Francisco Giants | 47c | 159.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 153.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 145$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 145$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 145$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 143.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.95 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 98.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 93.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 81.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 78.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 52.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 51.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Francisco Giants | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Francisco Giants | 47c | 29.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 28.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 25.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 20.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.