Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Binghamton Bearcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x321dd9b76b54e46f7351424cf4d6557e5866ab750406cb7cb34ae6c4389dedf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Binghamton Bearcatsof New Hampshire Wildcats, Binghamton Bearcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 44c | 8,093$3,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,533.87 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Binghamton Bearcats | 57c | 7,672$4,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,278.2 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 37c | 4,904$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.63 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Binghamton Bearcats | 61c | 3,163$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.31 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 58c | 1,316$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.43 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Binghamton Bearcats | 60c | 957$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.73 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 26c | 902.51$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.64 | 434 | 50%217 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Binghamton Bearcats | 43c | 892$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.14 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Binghamton Bearcats | 56c | 779.67$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.59 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 24c | 726.31$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.88 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 59c | 720.96$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.37 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Binghamton Bearcats | 65c | 675.53$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.36 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Binghamton Bearcats | 15c | 675.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.7 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 8c | 629.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Binghamton Bearcats | 15c | 621.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.88 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Binghamton Bearcats | 22c | 603.09$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.8 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…8e33backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 53c | 476.23$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Binghamton Bearcats | 45c | 441.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.42 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…d382backed Binghamton Bearcats | 43c | 430.06$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.64 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Binghamton Bearcats | 43c | 416.93$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.94 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Binghamton Bearcats | 71c | 356.85$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…d7c3backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 58c | 299.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 491 | 57.2%281 W · 210 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Binghamton Bearcats | 44c | 299.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Binghamton Bearcats | 63c | 281.04$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…c94bbacked Binghamton Bearcats | 65c | 257.87$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Binghamton Bearcats | 74c | 251.51$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 43c | 237.21$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 54c | 234.19$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Binghamton Bearcats | 14c | 213.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.51 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Binghamton Bearcats | 15c | 201.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.35 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Binghamton Bearcats | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Binghamton Bearcats | 46c | 195.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 507 | 45.2%229 W · 278 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 55c | 189.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 56c | 177.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 47c | 166.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 42c | 147.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 184 | 39.1%72 W · 112 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Binghamton Bearcats | 51c | 130.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 56c | 123.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…9792backed Binghamton Bearcats | 78c | 118.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 270 | 55.6%150 W · 120 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe112…1928backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 30c | 94.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Binghamton Bearcats | 43c | 90.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…5b36backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 53c | 84.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Binghamton Bearcats | 41c | 84.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Binghamton Bearcats | 42c | 73.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 37c | 72.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Binghamton Bearcats | 42c | 70.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 60c | 66.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 53c | 66.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Binghamton Bearcats | 77c | 64.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Binghamton Bearcats | 39c | 63.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…4d8bbacked Binghamton Bearcats | 43c | 56.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 53c | 56.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Binghamton Bearcats | 43c | 55.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 55c | 49.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…2e74backed Binghamton Bearcats | 45c | 47.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x789f…2e8abacked Binghamton Bearcats | 43c | 46.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Binghamton Bearcats | 55c | 45.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Binghamton Bearcats | 47c | 42.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Binghamton Bearcats | 38c | 39.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…81abbacked Binghamton Bearcats | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 60c | 33.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 51c | 31.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 252 | 39.3%99 W · 153 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 63c | 31.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Binghamton Bearcats | 47c | 29.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 54c | 24.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8d89backed Binghamton Bearcats | 42c | 24.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…84b0backed Binghamton Bearcats | 53c | 24.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 299 | 54.2%162 W · 137 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed New Hampshire Wildcats | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 430 | 53.3%229 W · 201 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…993abacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 77c | 22.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…adfebacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 52c | 21.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 54c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked New Hampshire Wildcats | 80c | 16.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Binghamton Bearcatsthis page
- New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Binghamton Bearcats: O/U 141.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.