Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Norrie (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x322ed9b001c7e6836e39c86b5dc79b0e6b34774a9a79dcfd983b1cd420a66b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norrieof Minaur, Norrie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef6b…32e1backed Minaur | 39c | 5,431$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Norrie | 60c | 3,906$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.79 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Norrie | 64c | 3,275$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.87 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Minaur | 36c | 2,602$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.86 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef7…cde6backed Minaur | 15c | 2,596$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +557.4%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…ae33backed Norrie | 62c | 1,042$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.06 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…a6e3backed Norrie | 62c | 916.68$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedde…5db2backed Minaur | 39c | 697.28$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.76 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Minaur | 37c | 599.99$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.58 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Minaur | 36c | 479.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Norrie | 61c | 339.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.2 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Norrie | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Minaur | 40c | 293$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ec…3cd6backed Norrie | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Norrie | 57c | 179.36$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Minaur | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Minaur | 42c | 91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Norrie | 60c | 88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Minaur | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Minaur | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Norrie | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Minaur | 68c | 36.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…4954backed Norrie | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 105 | 70.5%74 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…514fbacked Norrie | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f96…9ecebacked Norrie | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Norrie (+1.5)this page
- Cameron Norrie vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de MinaurCameron Norrie won
- Norrie vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Norrie vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs MinaurMinaur won
- Set 2 Winner: Norrie vs MinaurNorrie won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.