Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3248195d9cb473cce9b4a31f740f3232939d43e23c1fe93127c5cb6be3c97aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 3c | 2,121$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 1,317$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 3c | 1,191$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 670.98$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 28c | 542.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.67 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 5c | 346.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 323.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 304.08$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 251.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 64c | 245.66$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 241.26$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 5c | 238.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 209.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 28c | 167.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.42 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed Yes | 9c | 163.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.36 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 139.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 11c | 125.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 102.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 11c | 102.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.77 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 24c | 99.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 48c | 98.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 95.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 93.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 16c | 92.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 70.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 68c | 69.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 27c | 68.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 24c | 64.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 20c | 60.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…13eabacked Yes | 21c | 57.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 47.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 78c | 46.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 25c | 40.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 33c | 38.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 44c | 36.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 35.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 31.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 28.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 28.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 37c | 27.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…808abacked No | 78c | 25.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 23.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 71c | 20.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 79c | 18.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…6366backed No | 73c | 18.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 78c | 15.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 75c | 14.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.