Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Eintracht Braunschweig end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x327f1717e01e1d910de2141b786f382a24ff7e76a134f556a792b7d6bb7f0a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes | 26c | 1,838$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 1,750$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.83 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 878.92$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.43 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 7c | 640.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 589.15$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 74c | 290.77$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 276$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 25c | 226$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 23c | 188.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 26c | 187.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 24c | 158$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 17c | 143.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 108.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 107.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…5c17backed Yes | 27c | 106.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 26c | 95.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 86.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…1dafbacked Yes | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 74c | 69.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked No | 75c | 65.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 75c | 60.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…38d5backed Yes | 26c | 57.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Yes | 25c | 47.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 25c | 44.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed No | 74c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 74c | 26.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 73c | 24.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed No | 76c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17c…e5c2backed No | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…5e2fbacked No | 77c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Eintracht Braunschweig end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-24?No won
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-04-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.