Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32da5baa6c54a58f774a0014f63e30c3d0def1cb11cf8004934ede0b873b6e90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3192…9eebbacked No | 50c | 14,040$7,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,020 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…92cfbacked Yes | 50c | 14,040$7,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,020 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87c…0de1backed Yes | 50c | 13,951$6,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,975.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b9…6c67backed No | 50c | 13,946$6,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,973 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 33c | 4,492$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.47 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 2,020$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 41c | 1,069$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.07 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 57c | 942.93$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.46 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 839.94$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 77c | 647.48$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 71c | 499.98$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.59 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 75c | 424.99$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 37c | 373.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.69 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 32c | 365.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8f…4dc1backed No | 70c | 360.52$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 78c | 281.42$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 29c | 261.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 32c | 252.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 18c | 204.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 186.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 67c | 177.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3e…5f0bbacked Yes | 31c | 162$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 24c | 161.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked No | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…c863backed No | 68c | 146.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 31c | 141.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 42c | 129.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 29c | 124.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 27c | 119.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 74c | 112.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe816…74c5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…7681backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 15c | 94.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 31c | 94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 25c | 92.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 60c | 86.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 67c | 84.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 79.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0906…4b0dbacked Yes | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 74.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked No | 70c | 71.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 58c | 70.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…a046backed No | 79c | 65.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 67c | 63.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…e004backed Yes | 34c | 59.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 80c | 58.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 45c | 55.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3661…2220backed No | 75c | 55.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 46c | 53.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8061…ba22backed Yes | 25c | 52.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c84…787dbacked Yes | 28c | 48.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 50c | 41.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…514cbacked No | 72c | 39.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 31.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…158cbacked No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.