Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffde3239e9059cca096e7c9beb2eb6f71d9094716043d3405c9bdc2cb64f22f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 1c | 3,490$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 54c | 1,353$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.18 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 1,165$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 61c | 960.71$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.83 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 24c | 606.89$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 40c | 524.72$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 78c | 465.34$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 32c | 433.07$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 50c | 363.13$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.01 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf276…0ddebacked Yes | 70c | 350$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 60c | 298.53$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 77c | 182.94$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 52c | 177.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 28c | 171.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 163.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 69c | 162.76$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 75c | 160.64$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 59c | 154.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 62c | 153.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 46c | 152.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 63c | 146.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 38c | 144.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 71c | 141.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 78c | 128.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 125.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…4571backed Yes | 39c | 124.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 22c | 124$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 69c | 112.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked No | 21c | 112.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe816…74c5backed Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 43c | 104$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8f…4dc1backed Yes | 68c | 103.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…b40ebacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 60c | 94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…dc78backed No | 31c | 80.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe244…df35backed Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6934…aca7backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 38c | 64.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 48c | 63.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 53c | 60.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…4c01backed Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4659…58e6backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…8994backed Yes | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 46.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 79c | 45.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8061…ba22backed Yes | 67c | 38.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 60c | 38.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…bed4backed Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 41c | 36.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a8f6backed Yes | 77c | 35.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…73efbacked Yes | 74c | 25.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0906…4b0dbacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…998dbacked Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…602fbacked Yes | 65c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e87…fcb8backed Yes | 78c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…2c47backed Yes | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.