Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32ebf893e9aa961640964a17dd78ca60d819c968a0723536bfaf911a02b2bbb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellion Blackof M80, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.99 | 320 | 47.8%153 W · 167 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked M80 | 70c | 1,042$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.49 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…3fc0backed M80 | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 45c | 345.03$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.62 | 418 | 35.6%149 W · 269 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 270.61$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.09 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked M80 | 50c | 268$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…933abacked M80 | 70c | 246.54$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…bcfabacked M80 | 40c | 229.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…0d76backed M80 | 34c | 177.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa5…05bbbacked M80 | 70c | 157$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 151.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 30c | 147.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked M80 | 70c | 141.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…4179backed M80 | 75c | 130.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 76c | 122$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed M80 | 59c | 119$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed M80 | 69c | 104.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 930 | 49.4%459 W · 471 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 58c | 101.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked M80 | 42c | 92.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked M80 | 44c | 86.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…823bbacked M80 | 64c | 76.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fa…4c6abacked M80 | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…c9f4backed M80 | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked M80 | 55c | 69.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 59c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…3f76backed M80 | 64c | 66.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…1068backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 77c | 60.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked M80 | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 117 | 35%41 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…b1d4backed M80 | 73c | 41.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked M80 | 53c | 33.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…56babacked M80 | 72c | 31.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…cdd6backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 43c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…50c1backed M80 | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 48c | 21.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked M80 | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 3 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 3 PlayoffsM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 WinnerM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 WinnerM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 4 WinnerM80 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.