Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8da1bb3a50f932273b1fad9f1eace552aebdf5b93c86a2e9d5a67bbe7196d96f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- M80of M80, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 10c | 3,388$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.02 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed M80 | 66c | 3,023$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.3 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…92c8backed M80 | 65c | 1,287$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.24 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked M80 | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 675.63$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.71 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 35c | 631.32$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.96 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…ca87backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 33c | 517.98$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.93 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…bcfabacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 36c | 502.9$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 6c | 441.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4d…b4cabacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 439.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 420.24$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.12 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 369.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 176 | 53.4%94 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…fd66backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 298.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 238.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…0d76backed M80 | 23c | 232.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.78 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked M80 | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 349 | 54.7%191 W · 158 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4419…fcf4backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 172.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…755fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 168.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 166.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 44c | 161.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 38c | 161.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…ce3cbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 46c | 109.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 76c | 109.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba46…6ac5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 37c | 103.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 103.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…a20dbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 35c | 86.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 43c | 86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 48c | 82.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…3f76backed M80 | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 33c | 58.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 344 | 43.3%149 W · 195 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed M80 | 60c | 49.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 39c | 40.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed M80 | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 38c | 34.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -9.0wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0452…843cbacked M80 | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…7cbcbacked M80 | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked M80 | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked M80 | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 3 PlayoffsM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 WinnerM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 3 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 4 WinnerM80 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.