Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c45252913557b11e7be2357d654759964f3c0cc7c429763703f66ea5ae9f474
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- M80of M80, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4980…5709backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 23c | 4,361$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.47 | 322 | 45.7%147 W · 175 L | +52.2wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 19c | 3,006$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked M80 | 79c | 2,876$2,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.2 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked M80 | 64c | 1,650$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.9 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked M80 | 78c | 1,389$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.89 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 20c | 1,291$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.53 | 237 | 32.9%78 W · 159 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 17c | 1,066$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.22 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…93edbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 33c | 992.58$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.24 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 839.98$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.59 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 20c | 580.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed M80 | 79c | 436.44$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 18c | 428.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 418 | 35.6%149 W · 269 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5299…c4e0backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 11c | 415.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed M80 | 75c | 400.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…bd17backed M80 | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba46…6ac5backed M80 | 76c | 394.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed M80 | 66c | 364.96$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…f4a3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 13c | 338.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…0267backed M80 | 67c | 332.93$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 35c | 300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -11.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…a20dbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 26c | 295.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed M80 | 66c | 276.35$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 186 | 47.8%89 W · 97 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed M80 | 65c | 274.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…fbb0backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 41c | 242.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 28c | 238.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed M80 | 67c | 236.48$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -12.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 7c | 227.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed M80 | 67c | 216.36$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -26.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 195.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 21c | 192.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked M80 | 66c | 178$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 19c | 159.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 23c | 159.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00e8…0039backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 11c | 155.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8412…55f3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 23c | 153$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked M80 | 66c | 150.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 13c | 150.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…cf36backed M80 | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked M80 | 65c | 149.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 32c | 139.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 254 | 53.5%136 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…3c69backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 20c | 124$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed M80 | 75c | 114.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 16c | 113.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed M80 | 75c | 110.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 543 | 42.4%230 W · 313 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 37.5%42 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked M80 | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…0242backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 58%76 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 36c | 90.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +16.2wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed M80 | 67c | 82.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 19c | 75.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 211 | 36.5%77 W · 134 L | -15.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked M80 | 66c | 72.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked M80 | 65c | 70.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…980abacked M80 | 70c | 67.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 23c | 64.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 930 | 49.4%459 W · 471 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…bd66backed M80 | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 19c | 62.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 158 | 33.5%53 W · 105 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…ce3cbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 58.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked M80 | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 556 | 37.6%209 W · 347 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 20c | 55.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 269 | 32.3%87 W · 182 L | -25.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked M80 | 65c | 53.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed M80 | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked M80 | 58c | 51.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 29c | 44.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…b690backed M80 | 79c | 26.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed M80 | 70c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed M80 | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 252 | 45.2%114 W · 138 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed M80 | 69c | 15.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…fe71backed M80 | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…e9cebacked M80 | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffsthis page
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 WinnerM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 WinnerM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 3 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 4 WinnerM80 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.