Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Michelsen vs. Tsitsipas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32fb34944a726197d426a7bf95da3e2645a5b7be83f6ec4883d6481eae9a2e50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michelsenof Michelsen, Tsitsipas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa61d…22f6backed Tsitsipas | 49c | 14,535$7,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,121.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Michelsen | 51c | 12,438$6,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,093.83 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Tsitsipas | 43c | 9,210$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960.28 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…5781backed Michelsen | 57c | 9,208$5,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,959.52 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Tsitsipas | 13c | 7,763$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Michelsen | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Tsitsipas | 37c | 1,464$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.83 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…9f03backed Tsitsipas | 8c | 1,182$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Michelsen | 79c | 1,181$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.44 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Michelsen | 52c | 1,178$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.6 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Tsitsipas | 29c | 1,178$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Tsitsipas | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Michelsen | 52c | 971.35$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.35 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Michelsen | 55c | 899.99$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Tsitsipas | 45c | 841$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.45 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Tsitsipas | 4c | 728.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Michelsen | 51c | 706.96$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.81 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Tsitsipas | 45c | 692.84$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.88 | 1,444 | 48.8%705 W · 739 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Tsitsipas | 46c | 630.71$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.75 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…239fbacked Michelsen | 53c | 561.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Michelsen | 58c | 500$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.78 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Michelsen | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 959 | 35.5%340 W · 619 L | -40.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Tsitsipas | 36c | 361.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Michelsen | 57c | 321.05$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Tsitsipas | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Michelsen | 53c | 271.7$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tsitsipas | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tsitsipas | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Michelsen | 55c | 182.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Michelsen | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Michelsen | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 252 | 52.4%132 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…4b3ebacked Michelsen | 57c | 154.45$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Michelsen | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Michelsen | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Michelsen | 63c | 125$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Michelsen | 65c | 85.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Michelsen | 53c | 74.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Michelsen | 54c | 63.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 2,332 | 46.6%1,087 W · 1,245 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…4eebbacked Tsitsipas | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Tsitsipas | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Michelsen | 55c | 46.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…3487backed Tsitsipas | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7ddebacked Tsitsipas | 43c | 30.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Michelsen | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Michelsen | 56c | 19.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…956bbacked Michelsen | 58c | 17.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.