Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Sebastian Korda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x330f87a16b9b9a730eb8ab534640c6760e2dd6486964a3f41134957ab2bee3d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kordaof Popyrin, Korda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Korda | 55c | 2,715$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.8 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…99c4backed Korda | 64c | 2,515$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Popyrin | 36c | 1,774$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.36 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Korda | 77c | 1,771$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.13 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Popyrin | 48c | 1,277$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.22 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Popyrin | 36c | 1,109$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.29 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Popyrin | 37c | 1,109$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.2 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Korda | 63c | 999.97$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.99 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Korda | 61c | 688.88$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.88 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Korda | 70c | 600.65$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.7 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Popyrin | 37c | 583.78$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Popyrin | 45c | 568.92$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.32 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…bc46backed Popyrin | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Popyrin | 34c | 403.27$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Popyrin | 23c | 340.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Korda | 63c | 327.66$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.66 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Popyrin | 36c | 288.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Korda | 58c | 285.76$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Korda | 63c | 216.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Popyrin | 41c | 173.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Korda | 45c | 165.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Popyrin | 68c | 146.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Popyrin | 60c | 110$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Korda | 73c | 108$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…7d56backed Popyrin | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Popyrin | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Popyrin | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Popyrin | 56c | 89.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Korda | 55c | 79.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Korda | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Popyrin | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Korda | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…fd01backed Popyrin | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Popyrin | 38c | 38.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8161…e08ebacked Popyrin | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Korda | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.