Europa Conference League · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3320a55429ab037046e360f0779a8c791854780d1c872d5b19a5e850ab9347e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 78c | 2,333$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 2,316$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.83 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 769.23$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.23 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 78c | 613.71$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.02 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 23c | 605.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.77 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 11c | 559.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 77c | 478.72$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 6c | 450.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 78c | 257.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…3e77backed Over | 78c | 152.24$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 111.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 77c | 102.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a0…a626backed Over | 78c | 77.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…e639backed Over | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 21c | 69.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…89a0backed Under | 23c | 69.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 77c | 38.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Celtic FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.