Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba1b58542e513e465437ce1e1827f541400f14afbbd0a0c749d1e6efeb6fd70f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celtic FCof Bologna FC 1909, Celtic FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Bologna FC 1909 | 20c | 12,084$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.16 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtic FC | 74c | 11,488$8,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,001.11 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Bologna FC 1909 | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bologna FC 1909 | 1c | 1,080$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 29c | 1,023$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.36 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 34c | 806.26$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.21 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Celtic FC | 66c | 714.88$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.51 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Celtic FC | 64c | 650$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 32c | 599.55$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.36 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 34c | 420$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Bologna FC 1909 | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a3…7cc2backed Celtic FC | 69c | 373.26$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…230cbacked Celtic FC | 69c | 367.84$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…8dd8backed Bologna FC 1909 | 32c | 367.41$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1261…3e02backed Bologna FC 1909 | 32c | 367.35$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Bologna FC 1909 | 31c | 319.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -12.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 35c | 298.43$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Celtic FC | 70c | 286.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Celtic FC | 71c | 204$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…eb0cbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 35c | 181.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Bologna FC 1909 | 33c | 176$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Bologna FC 1909 | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Bologna FC 1909 | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Celtic FC | 68c | 110.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Celtic FC | 69c | 108$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Celtic FC | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Bologna FC 1909 | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Bologna FC 1909 | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Bologna FC 1909 | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Celtic FC | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Celtic FC | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3af…2c0abacked Celtic FC | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Celtic FC | 66c | 27.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Celtic FC | 66c | 27.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.